What is Brexit? ... ITS POSSIBLE IMPACTS

Brexit is the term used to describe the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union. After the June 2016 referendum (where 51.9% voted to leave), the UK government and a change of heart and began the country's withdrawal in March 2017. The United Kingdom has set aside January 31, 2020, as its official withdrawal date, after which there would be a transition process (where the UK and EU will negotiate the terms of UK's relationship with the EU) that will conclude at the tail-end of this year.

The 1992 Maastricht Treaty founded the EU, however, it was not put to a referendum. The Eurosceptic wing of the Conservation Party, the UK Independence Party and the cross-party People's Pledge campaign led a rebellion that pressured the Conservative Prime Minister, David Cameron to hold a referendum in June 2016 on continued EU membership. Cameron resigned after results were announced and he was succeeded by Theresa May.

The UK government formally began the withdrawal process on 29th March 2017 by invoking Article 50 of the Treaty on the EU with the permission of the parliament. The snap general elections in June 2017 resulted in a Conservative minority government supported by the Democratic Unionist Party. The UK-EU withdrawal negotiations began in June 2017.

The UK negotiated to exit the EU customs union and single market, resulting in the November 2018 withdrawal, but the UK parliament voted against ratifying it three times.

The UK parliament voted for May in March 2019 to ask the EU to delay Brexit until April and then October. After failing to get approval for the agreement, she resigned and was succeeded by Boris Johnson. Johnson replaced part of the agreement and vowed the UK will leave the EU by the new deadline. On 17th Oct. 2019, the UK and EU reached a withdrawal agreement, with new arrangements for Northern Ireland. The parliament scrutinized the agreement and rejected plans to pass it into law before the 31 Oct. deadline, forcing the government to request for another Brexit delay.

Following the early general elections of Dec. 12, where the Conservatives won a majority, Johnson declared the UK would leave the EU by early 2020, with an 11-month transition period that would be terminated by at least 31st Dec. 2020.

The UK government gave final approval for the exit on 22nd January 2020 and the deal was signed on behalf of the EU and the UK on 24th Jan. 2020. The European Parliament is set to vote on the deal on 29th Jan. 2020.

Possible Impacts of Brexit

·      The UK and part of the EU27 economies could be affected

Economists argue that the exit could reduce UK's per capita income in the medium and long term, and the referendum itself damaging the economy. Several studies showed that the Brexit-induced uncertainty reduced the British GDP, British national income, investment by business, employment and British international trade from June 2016 onwards. The economists have also warned that London's future as an international financial center depended on passport agreement with the EU.

·      The Irish border agreement could be breached

The Irish border between the Republic of Ireland and the UK have been a contentious issue, and would only be a UK-EU land border after Brexit. All parties involved agreed that a hard border should be avoided in order not to compromise the Good Friday Agreement that ended the Northern Ireland conflict. To prevent this, the EU proposed the backstop agreement/Northern Ireland Protocol, keeping the UK in the Customs Union and keeping Northern Ireland in some aspects of the Single Market, till a solution is found. The EU said if no deal is agreed on, the Republic of Ireland will have to implement border checks on the EU's behalf.

·      Impact on the EU

The EU will be affected as it would lose its second-largest economy and a second-largest net contributor to the EU budget. Brexit would result in an additional financial burden for the remaining net contributors, except the budget, is reduced accordingly.

·      Impact on British Academia and Research

The UK being a member of the European Research Area is likely to lose research funding from EU sources. They may see a reduction in students from the EU, find it harder to hire researchers from the EU and UK students will find it harder to study abroad in the EU.

·      Impact on health

A study has shown that Brexit will deplete the National Health Service (NHS) workforce, create uncertainties regarding care for British nationals living in the EU, and put at risk access to vaccines, equipment, and medicines.